A Century of World Population Trends: 1950 to 2050
Today, the world's population is more than three times larger than it was in the mid-twentieth century. It took around 37 years since 1950 for human numbers to double, surpassing 5 billion inhabitants in 1987. Furthermore, the global population is estimated to double again in about 70 years, rising to over 10 billion by 2059.
Over the one hundred years the world population was growing the fastest, particularly between 1962-1965, when it was increasing on average by 2.1 percent per year. Since then, the pace of population growth has slowed by more than half owing to reduced levels of fertility. In 2020, and for the first time since 1950, the rate of population growth fell below one percent per year and it is projected to continue to slow in the next few decades and through the end of this century. The global population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030, and add 1.18 billion in the following two decades, reaching 9.7 billion in 2050.
Given its reliance on assumptions at the country level about the two components of global population growth-fertility and mortality- the projection of the global population is inherently uncertain. It typically becomes more uncertain over time. However, the size of the world population in the near future is relatively certain. This is because the size and age structure of the population over the next few decades are largely the result of demographic processes that have already taken place in the recent past. In particular, most of the women whose offspring will contribute to the population growth through 2050 are already alive. The global population is still growing. though at a reduced rate. Some countries and regions continue to experience further population growth, while others have witnessed stabilization or begun to decrease in population size.
The world's two most populous regions in 2022 were Eastern and South-Eastern Asia. 2.3 billion people, representing 29 percent of the global population lived in these regions. Central and Southern Asia had 2.1 billion population representing 26 percent. China and India accounted for the largest populations in these regions, with more than 1.4 billion each in 2022.
The total population of Europe and Northern America and that of sub-Saharan Africa was comparable in size in 2022, with more than 1.1 and 1.2 billion people respectively. However, these two regions have reached such population size as a result of very different. growth trajectories since the mid-20th century. Europe and Northern America have been growing at an annual rate of less than one percent since the mid-1960s, reaching a growth rate close to zero in 2020 and 2021. The annual growth rate of the population of sub-Saharan Africa peaked at three percent in 1978 and remained above 2.8 per cent during the 1980s. Since the 1980s, sub-Saharan Africa has been the region with the fastest growing population.
Almost 44.8 million people lived in the two regions of Oceania in 2022. With 2.5 million inhabitants in 1950, the population of Oceania, excluding Australia and New Zealand reached close to 13.6 million in 2022.
Population of the world, SDG regions and selected groups of countries, 2022, 2030 and 2050 according to the medium scenario
Region | Population (in millions) |
2022 | 2030 | 2050 |
World | 7942 | 8512 | 9687 |
Sub-Saharan Africa | 1152 | 1401 | 2094 |
Northen Africa and western Asia | 549 | 617 | 771 |
Central and Southern Asia | 2342 | 2372 | 2317 |
Latin America and the Caribbean | 658 | 659 | 749 |
Australia/New Zeland | 31 | 34 | 38 |
Oceania | 14 | 15 | 20 |
Europe and Nothern America | 1120 | 1129 | 1125 |
Least development countries | 1112 | 1338 | 1914 |
Landlocked developing countries | 557 | 664 | 947 |
Small island developing states | 74 | 79 | 87 |
In the next three decades, the regions of the world will experience different growth rates of their population. Consequently, the regional distribution of the population in 2050 will significantly differ from that of today.
Central and Southern Asia is expected to become the most populous region in the world by 2037 as the population of Eastern and South- Eastern Asia could start declining by the mid-2030s.
Between 2022 and 2050, the population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to almost double, surpassing two billion inhabitants by the late 2040s. With average fertility levels remaining close to three births per woman in 2050, sub-Saharan Africa is projected to account for more than half of the growth of the world's population between 2022 and 2050. In 2022, the size of the population in this region was growing at an annual rate of 2.5 percent, the highest among all eight regions or more than three times the global average of 0.8 percent per year.
Europe and Northern America are projected to reach their peak in population and to begin experiencing a decline in the late 2030s due to sustained low levels of fertility.
More than half of the projected increase in the global population between 2022 and 2050 is expected to be concentrated in just eight countries: The Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania. The populations of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the United Republic of Tanzania are expected to grow rapidly, between two and three percent per year over the 2022-2050 period. Disparate population growth rates among the world's largest countries will change their ranking by size: For example, India is projected to surpass China as the world's most populous country in 2023.
(Adapted from World Population Prospects 2022)
A. Match the following words with their correct meanings.
a. populous: v. having a large population: densely populated |
b. mortality: vii. the number of deaths in a particular situation or period of time |
c. projection: iii. an estimation of what figures will be in the future |
d. demographic: ii. relating to the population and different groups within it |
e. peak: ix. to reach the highest point or value |
f. stabilization: iv. the process of making somebody/something unlikely to change |
g. trajectory: i. a path followed by something |
h. surpass: vi. to be greater than something; exceed |
i. disparate: viii. completely dissimilar |
B. Complete the following sentences with the correct information from the text.
a. The highest population growth rate in the past hundred years was 2.1 percent. |
b. Population growth rate is likely to reach below 1 percent by mid-twenty-first century. |
c. The factors that determine the growth rate of the world population are fertility and mortality. |
d. In the early 2020s, Eastern and South-Eastern Asia had the largest population. |
e. The population of the sub-Saharan region is likely to reach above 2 billion by the end of the 2040s. |
f. The low level of fertility will cause a fall in population size of Europe and Northern America by the late 2030s. |
g. India is likely to exceed the population of China by 2023. |
C. Answer these questions
a. What was the size of the world population in the mid-twentieth century? |
Answer: The size of the world population in the mid-twentieth century was 5 billion. |
b. What was the fastest population growth rate in the past century? |
Answer: The fastest population growth rate in the past century was between 1962-1965, increasing on average by 2.1 percent per year. |
c. Why has the population growth rate declined in recent years? |
Answer: The population growth rate has declined in recent years due to reduced levels of fertility. |
d. What is the predicted world population size by 2050? |
Answer: The predicted world population size by 2050 is estimated to be 9.7 billion. |
e. How do fertility and mortality contribute to the size of the population? |
Answer: Fertility and mortality contribute to the size of the population by determining the number of births and deaths, which impact population growth. |
f. Which countries contribute to the largest population in Eastern and SouthEastern Asia? |
Answer: China and India contribute to the largest population in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia. |
g. Why will population regions have a different population variation in the next 30 years? |
Answer: Population regions will have a different population variation in the next 30 years due to varying growth rates and demographic factors specific to each region. |
h. Which countries are most likely to contribute to the growth of world population by 2050? |
Answer: The countries most likely to contribute to the growth of the world population by 2050 are The Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and the United Republic of Tanzania. |
Word Meaning
Word + Phonetic Transcription |
surpassing /səˈpɑːrsɪŋ/ |
exceeding, surpassing, going beyond |
Going beyond or being more than a certain limit or expectation. |
owing-to /ˈoʊɪŋˌtuː/ |
due to, because of |
As a result of or caused by something. |
reliance /rɪˈlaɪəns/ |
dependence, trust |
Trusting or depending on someone or something. |
assumptions /əˈsʌmpʃənz/ |
beliefs, guesses |
Ideas or guesses that are accepted as true without proof. |
mortality /mɔːrˈtæləti/ |
death rate, fatality |
The number of deaths or the state of being mortal. |
projection /prəˈdʒɛkʃən/ |
estimate, forecast |
An estimation or prediction of a future situation or trend. |
relatively /ˈrɛlətɪvli/ |
comparatively, somewhat |
To some extent or in comparison with something else. |
demographic /ˌdiːməˈɡræfɪk/ |
population-related, people-focused |
Relating to the characteristics and structure of a population. |
offspring /ˈɔːfsprɪŋ/ |
children, descendants |
A person's child or children. |
witnessed /ˈwɪtnɪst/ |
observed, seen, noticed |
To have seen or observed something happening. |
stabilization /ˌsteɪbəlaɪˈzeɪʃən/ |
steadying, balance |
The process of making something stable or bringing it into balance. |
populous /ˈpɑːpjələs/ |
heavily populated, crowded |
Having a large number of people or being densely populated. |
accounted-for /əˈkaʊntɪd fɔːr/ |
represented, included |
Being included or considered as part of a total. |
growth trajectories /ɡroʊθ ˌtrekˈtɔːriz/ |
development paths, expansion patterns |
The paths or patterns showing the development and expansion. |
peaked /piːkt/ |
reached a peak, reached the highest point |
Reached the highest point or level of something. |
significantly /sɪɡˈnɪfɪkəntli/ |
notably, considerably |
To a great extent or notably; making a big difference. |
declining /dɪˈklaɪnɪŋ/ |
decreasing, falling |
Becoming smaller, fewer, or less; going down in number or amount. |
projected /prəˈdʒɛktɪd/ |
estimated, predicted |
Estimated or predicted based on available data or trends. |
concentration /ˌkɑːnsənˈtreɪʃən/ |
focus, gathering |
The act or process of focusing or gathering things together. |
disparate /ˈdɪspərət/ |
distinct, different |
Essentially different in kind or not able to be compared. |
Extra Questions to Practice
Expandable FAQ Section
What has been the trend in world population from 1950 to 2050?
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Answer: The world's population has been steadily increasing over this period.
How many times has the world's population doubled since 1950?
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Answer: The world's population has doubled once since 1950.
When did the world's population surpass 5 billion?
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Answer: The world's population surpassed 5 billion in 1987.
What is the projected global population by 2050?
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Answer: The projected global population by 2050 is 9.7 billion.
What is the current growth rate of the world's population?
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Answer: The current growth rate of the world's population is not mentioned in the passage.
What factors have contributed to the decline in population growth rate in recent years?
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Answer: The decline in population growth rate is attributed to reduced levels of fertility.
How has population growth varied in Europe and Northern America since the mid-20th century?
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Answer: Population growth in Europe and Northern America has been relatively low since the mid-20th century.
What is the population growth rate in sub-Saharan Africa compared to the global average?
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Answer: The population growth rate in sub-Saharan Africa is higher than the global average.
Which regions are expected to experience declining population in the future?
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Answer: Eastern and South-Eastern Asia are expected to experience declining population in the future.
What is the growth rate of sub-Saharan Africa's population between 2022 and 2050?
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Answer: The growth rate of sub-Saharan Africa's population is not mentioned in the passage.
Which two countries are projected to have the largest populations in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia?
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Answer: China and India are projected to have the largest populations in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia.
Which regions have reached comparable population sizes in 2022?
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Answer: Europe and Northern America, and sub-Saharan Africa have reached comparable population sizes in 2022.
What is the annual growth rate of Europe and Northern America's population?
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Answer: The annual growth rate of Europe and Northern America's population is close to zero.
Which countries are expected to contribute most to the global population growth by 2050?
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Answer: The Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and the United Republic of Tanzania are expected to contribute most to the global population growth by 2050.
How does the size of the world population in the near future compare to the projected size?
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Answer: The size of the world population in the near future is relatively certain based on demographic processes that have already taken place.
What are the two most populous regions in the world in 2022?
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Answer: The two most populous regions in the world in 2022 are Eastern and South-Eastern Asia.
What is the population size of Central and Southern Asia in 2022?
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Answer: The population size of Central and Southern Asia in 2022 is 2.1 billion.
How has the population of Oceania changed from 1950 to 2022?
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Answer: The population of Oceania, excluding Australia and New Zealand, has increased from 2.5 million in 1950 to close to 13.6 million in 2022.
What is the projected population size of Australia/New Zealand in 2050?
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Answer: The projected population size of Australia/New Zealand in 2050 is 38 million.